Here we are. The 2026 World Cup is entering its final stages, there is no more room for error, and the best players will need to be decisive in order to carry their teams all the way to the end of the tournament. A performance that, naturally, increases the chances of featuring prominently in the following Ballon d'Or. But do you absolutely have to win the World Cup to claim football's most prestigious individual trophy?

To find out, we looked at the data. Bobby Charlton (1966), Paolo Rossi (1982) and Lothar Matthäus (1990) all won the World Cup and the Ballon d'Or in the same year. But our analysis becomes particularly interesting (and instructive for today) from 1995 onwards, the year the Ballon d'Or went global and was no longer reserved exclusively for Europeans.

57% of success only!

In 1998, Zinédine Zidane left no room for doubt, winning the home World Cup before lifting the Ballon d'Or shortly after. Four years later, Ronaldo followed suit by triumphing with Brazil. Two from two. Then three from three in 2006, with Italian defender Fabio Cannavaro's coronation. But that is where the pattern ends.

In 2010, an impressive Lionel Messi with FC Barcelona edged out Spain's Andrés Iniesta and Xavi, despite their World Cup triumph. In 2014, Cristiano Ronaldo prevailed in the same fashion over Lionel Messi, a World Cup finalist, and Germany's Manuel Neuer, the winner. And in 2018, Luka Modrić, a finalist with Croatia, finished ahead of Cristiano Ronaldo and France's Antoine Griezmann, the first World Cup champion from the 2018 class to appear in the rankings.

It therefore took until the most recent World Cup, in the winter of 2022, for a world champion to go on and win the following Ballon d'Or. By triumphing with Argentina, Lionel Messi also claimed the 2023 Ballon d'Or. That brings to seven the number of players to have completed the double. But since 1995, four out of seven have managed it (57%). Yes, winning the World Cup helps, but it does not guarantee a Ballon d'Or. To win it, you need to have been the best player of the season, not only of the World Cup.